Regional antidotes to counter Trump

The return of Donald Trump — now US President-elect, is one of the biggest global shocks. Almost every country is worried about what will happen with the world and economy with the return of Mr Trump’s style of protectionism — this time on steroids. Or, to put it simply, will it be either an “Armageddon” of global instability or a flurry of self-serving deal-making?
Mr Trump’s “America First” mantra sends a clear message: No mercy as US interests come first and above all else. That means the rest of the world will have to run for cover and find a way to fend for itself. With Mr Trump seemingly unrestrained this time, his policies could unleash unfathomable repercussions on the global order. Southeast Asia, in particular, must be ready to respond to the possible fallout of Mr Trump’s isolationist and transactional worldview. Will the America First strategy make the MAGA (Make America Great Again) slogan a reality? Nobody knows.
Here are five key strategies that Southeast Asia can adopt to mitigate the potential harm of Mr Trump’s policies.
First is the approaching new normal. The region must accept that the US, as the familiar political system, will never be the same. For the US, despite the US federal government having three branches — legislative, executive and judicial — the Republican Party now dominates Congress and the Supreme Court and will consolidate power in a way never seen before. Just examine the list of proposed key positions so far in his new cabinet, and one can easily lose sleep. This shift challenges and certainly undermines the check and balances mechanism. So, Mr Trump has been emboldened to pursue policies with little restraint, which has already shaken global trust in US leadership.
Second is to strengthen people-centred policies and democratic institutions.
With Mr Trump, Washington’s effort to promote democracy abroad is taking a back seat. Therefore, Southeast Asian nations should not depend on the sole authority of American democratic narratives. They can explore alternative models of governance tailored to local contexts without violating civic and political rights. Though it might not be as liberal as the West, the regional model has provided much-needed stability and progress, with some constructive practices and lessons learned for other developing countries.
In detail, under Mr Trump, Joe Biden’s initiatives like the Summit for Democracy may be toast. The past three summits, the latest one held last December in South Korea, have further frustrated US ties with friends and allies. It is highly likely the various plans to promote democracy and press freedom abroad agreed upon will be shelved.
Nonetheless, it is hoped that by championing inclusive governance (leaving no one behind) and strengthening regional cooperation, Southeast Asia, under the Asean umbrella, can show that democracy is not a one-size-fits-all concept. The new Asean Community Vision 2045, which the bloc’s leaders will adopt in May next year, will show the way. The vision pledges to uphold democratic principles, the rule of law and respect for and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms.
Third is creating a balance between the US and China.
Without the democracy-related irritants, Southeast Asia will still have to face Mr Trump’s China card. Since the 2000s, The Middle Kingdom has been a central issue in US politics, but Mr Trump’s rhetoric has weaponised it like no other American leader. From tariffs to tech bans, Mr Trump has demonised China to rally domestic support. This adversarial approach will certainly intensify in his second term, negatively impacting global trade and the international order. Lately, within the Asean diplomatic community, there has been a concern that Mr Biden’s two-year-old brainchild, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, will be the first casualty after Mr Trump’s inauguration in January.
Southeast Asia, situated in the centre of the Indo-Pacific and at the crossroads of US-China competition, must balance this rivalry carefully. Regional economies and stability depend heavily on trade and close ties with both powers. As the Asean summit last month manifested, the bloc must increase trade and investment with one another and strengthen and diversify its supply chains.
All Asean members have already engaged with emerging economies to reduce dependence on either Washington or Beijing. Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand became Brics partners last month, much to the chagrin of their Western friends. Fortunately, each year-end, Asean still has the convening and convincing power to attract all key global players to rendezvous in the region to pledge stronger regional cooperation.
The question is how Southeast Asia, individually or collectively, can deal with Mr Trump’s worldviews through a transactional lens. His unconventional position on US alliances has already caused goosebumps as he had the audacity to ask for financial contributions in exchange for Washington’s protection. His past comments on Taiwan, South Korea, and Nato allies were indicative of his intentions. This “protection fee” demand will further weaken the mutual trust and shared responsibility with the US.
Fourth is developing good friendships with other nations.
Southeast Asia must maintain good relations and form multifaceted partnerships with other global players, including China, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, India, Russia, Australia, Brazil and the Gulf States. Under Malaysia’s Asean chair, these partnerships will be greatly strengthened. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has made it clear that these partnerships can provide alternative sources of economic and security support when needed to absorb possible shocks resulting from the unpredictability of Mr Trump’s policies.
Fifth is promoting a multipolar world order.
Finally, the new administration’s isolationist and tariff-obsessed policies could be disruptive. Mr Trump has said that he will impose 10-20% tariffs on all imports and 60% on Chinese imports. Such measures will destabilise supply chains and hurt emerging economies. Southeast Asia will be one of the major targets, especially key Asean members, which have large trade surpluses with the US. Doubtless, Mr Trump will make more enemies than friends during his first 100 days.
So, Southeast Asia must further promote the rise of a multipolar world order. That explains why the region places importance on the United Nations and Asean charters. So are the various Asean-led mechanisms which have already played crucial roles in shaping a more balanced global system. With more signatories to the Asean’s regional code of conduct, Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, the bloc would win more friends and expand its influence in international decision-making processes and forums.
Obviously, a multipolar world and Mr Trump’s America First policy will further dilute US dominance in the region if he proceeds vigorously. With its strategic location, rich resources, dynamic economies, and diverse cultures, Southeast Asia can come together and build new partnerships with like-minded countries to promote peace, sustainability, and shared prosperity.
Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs.